The slew of good US economic data is because of the election — but not Trump’s win

Now it would be a natural inclination to think that this means President-elect Donald Trump has “Made America Great Again,” but the fact that Trump was the victor on November 8 probably has less to do with the data than the simple fact that a victor was named at all.

One good indication that it’s not about Trump specifically comes from the UMich consumer confidence release.

“The upsurge in favorable economic prospects is not surprising given Trump’s populist policy views, and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended,” said UMich economist Richard Curtin in the report.

Additionally, jobless claims actually ticked up from the previous week, above last week’s historic low for the labor market indicator. Thus, the bounce this week according to Ward McCarthy at Jefferies, shows that the record was just an aberration.

“Last week’s claims came in the lowest level of claims since the week ended July 14th, 1973, but the rebound this week suggests that this was a one-off dip,” said a note from the chief economist. “Last week’s reporting date was near Veteran’s Day and floating holidays can sometimes create seasonal adjustment difficulties.”

Put another way, it’s not that Trump won, it’s that the darn thing was finally over.