BMO Capital Markets: 2,950
Brian BelskiBloomberg TV
“Admittedly, we believed stagnating valuations were going to be a primary theme in 2017 thanks to the anticipation of higher interest rates and inflation,” said Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist, in a November 17 note.
“Given a more dovish than anticipated Fed, PE expansion remained the name of the game last year, even as earnings recovered.
However, the true test of the recovery will likely take place in 2018 as earnings are forecast to be even stronger over the next several quarters. In other words, given somewhat stretched valuation levels, it will be tougher for PE to expand meaningfully and earnings growth will be required for the next leg higher.
The good news is that current expectations suggest just that — earnings growth is expected to accelerate into double-digit territory for 2018. And this is essentially the rationale for our base case optimism. Historically, the market has performed much better and provided higher levels of risk-adjusted returns during calendar years of double-digit earnings growth.”