BREXIT: New BMG poll gives Remain a rare lead

Vote Remain supporters arrive for an event at Manchester Metropolitan University's student Union in Manchester, northern England June 16, 2016. REUTERS/Phil Noble Vote Remain supporters arrive for an event at Manchester Metropolitan University’s student Union in Manchester, northern EnglandThomson Reuters

Support for Britain to stay in the European Union was leading by almost 7 points over those advocating withdrawal from the 28-member bloc, not quite a week before the June 23 referendum, according to a telephone poll released on Friday.

The poll, by BMG for The Herald, showed Remain with 53.3 percent support and Leave with 46.7 percent. The poll of 1,064 adults, conducted June 10-15, excluded the “don’t knows.”

But a separate online poll by BMG showed the Leave camp leading by 10 points, with Leave at 55.5 percent support and Remain at 44.5 percent.

The polling was conducted before Thursday’s murder of Jo Cox, a British Labour politician, which prompted the suspension of campaigning by both camps. It’s not yet clear what impact the death of Cox might have on the referendum.

The BMG poll had been expected on June 16, but was delayed in light of the death of the parliamentarian.

The Remain camp has been the bookies’ favourite for much of the campaign – but recently, there has been a significant swing to Leave as pro-Brexit politicians have focused on the theme of immigration.

This BMG poll will be reassuring reading for increasingly unsettled Europhiles – but it remains to be seen whether it is the beginning of a counter-swing back to Remain, or an outlier in what is an increasingly solid base of support for Leave.

master polls list june 18 bmgAdam Payne/Business Insider

With the latest BMG, Survation and Mori polls our #EUref averages stand at:

Remain: 42.9%

Leave: 47.6%

— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 18, 2016

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