NFL WEEK 1: Our official predictions for who wins this weekend

Kansas City Chiefs (+9) at New England Patriots (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET)

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The pick: Chiefs +9

The logic: Ugh what an awful way to start this experiment. The Patriots make gamblers look dumb week in and week out, and this game will likely be more of the same. Between Andy Reid vs. Bill Belichick, Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady, the Patriots receiving corps of Cooks, Gronk, Hogan, and Amendola vs. Travis Kelce and not much else, none of the matchups look good.

But points are important when betting on sports, and nine points is a lot. Since 2000 these teams have met eight times and the Chiefs have covered nine points six of those times, and fell one point short on another occasion. When the Chiefs and Patriots met in the playoffs last season, they lost by just a touchdown.

There’s a 70% chance this pick will look ridiculous five minutes into the game after the Pats have sprinted to a 14-point lead after electing to kick, but the Chiefs shouldn’t be nine point dogs.