Almost every college basketball expert had Michigan State reaching the Final Four

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In what will likely go down as the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history, No. 15 Middle Tennessee State took down second-seeded Michigan State in the first round of the tournament. But if the loss busted your bracket, don’t worry, you’re not alone.

While this was not the first time a 2-seed lost in the opening round, this upset separates itself from the others because of how much of lock everybody thought Michigan State was entering the tournament. Not only did many feel that Michigan State should have been a 1-seed, but Michigan State was the one Final Four team that almost everybody agreed on.

Prior to the tournament, we surveyed 53 college basketball experts at,, and Of the 53 experts:

  • 50 (94.3%) had Michigan State in the Final Four
  • 28 (52.8%) had Michigan State winning the championship

It is rare for experts to ever have that much agreement on anything, and when they do it is usually reserved for a 1-seed that enters the tourney as an overwhelming favorite.

This is not to knock the experts. Rather, this is just a reminder that it is March, it is Madness, and nobody knows what is going to happen, even the experts.

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