The 10 biggest risks the world faces in 2018

5. US-Iran relations

US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

It looks like Trump “has it in for Iran,” according to Eurasia Group’s analysis, and the US president could danger fragile diplomatic gains made in the past — specifically the nuclear deal.

“The nuclear deal will probably survive 2018, but there’s a substantial chance that it won’t,” Bremmer and Kupchan write.

Trump will likely continue to push back against Iranian influence, particularly in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. There will also be deeper coordination with Saudi Arabia.

Iran, in turn, will push back and ramp up its nuclear program if the deal falls through, which in turn increases the possibility of an American or Israeli strike in Iran — causing oil prices to rise.