Bill Gross now thinks recessions happen when nominal GDP falls below 3% — meaning we’re already there (JNS)

Janus Capital’s Bill Gross thinks our “new age financial economy” has changed the rules for recession.

In a tweet Friday morning, Gross said we’re in recession when the growth of nominal gross domestic product — that is, GDP not adjusted for inflation — falls below 3%.

Nominal GDP growth hit 2.9% in the fourth quarter.

So, I guess we’re already in recession.

Gross: Recessions in new age financial economy defined by nominal GDP, not real GDP. In US, 3.0% or lower. Now 2.9%.

— Janus Capital (@JanusCapital) February 12, 2016

Here’s the chart, with the top black line serving as Gross’ new low-water mark.

fredgraph (1)FRED

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